Like a lot of places in Europe, Ukraine was never as open to civilian firearm ownership as the United States. At least, not until it looked like Russia was going to invade. Then, unsurprisingly, they were arming people left and right.
But that means the black market for guns there is going to be...interesting.
See, when they were handing out guns to everyone and their mother, they weren't exactly checking IDs, running background checks, and putting everyone's information in a database. Even if they could, a lot of those names are dead, and the guns are unaccounted for. Others have lost them through other means.
Then there has been the flow of new weapons to the front lines from allies.
And when it comes to violent crime and guns on the black market, the information suggests that it's not going to be anything particularly easy to classify.
And recently, sporadic headlines of shootings, like a case earlier this month in Kyiv where a man killed a soldier and his mother-in-law in a dispute over the illegal sale of a firearm, have raised concerns about whether illicit guns are spreading.
Yet fears — and Russian disinformation — about skyrocketing gun crimes or weapons leaking outside the border have so far failed to materialize. According to research conducted by the Small Arms Survey, access to firearms for the average civilian household has, in fact, decreased since 2022.
"The active war at the front line is serving as a bit of a magnet for most of these weapons (because) they are needed at the front line, preventing any large-scale diversion both within Ukraine and to foreign countries," explained Florquin. Active efforts by the Ukrainian government to address the threat of weapons proliferation through searches and seizures are also helping to curb their spread, he added.
Meanwhile, around one in ten households with victims of recent crimes surveyed in 2024 said the incident had involved a firearm — a slight rise from prior surveys that Florquin described as "something to watch" but "not yet alarming."
"Obviously, the challenge will be to collect and dispose of excess weapons when and if this magnet effect of ongoing major conflict ceases," he added.
...But while international discussion around Ukraine's arms control has focused primarily on risks of international trafficking, "we currently do not have a very high percentage of weapons leaks abroad," Voronina said. "Our law enforcement agencies keep this issue under high control. Today, the issue of threats from illegal arms trafficking is more internal. Because weapons are found in playgrounds, weapons are found in apartments."
Florquin echoed her view that the domestic risks of unchecked proliferation — including its impact on violent crime, accidental discharges, and suicide within Ukraine — are higher than the risks posed to neighboring countries, which so far have not seen trafficking from Ukraine on any significant scale.
Now, we're having to take the word of Ukrainian officials that these weapons aren't being trafficked abroad, which is easier said than done. The country has a history of corruption, as does Russia, which means that simply lying to save face is nothing to most folks in public roles in that part of Europe.
Still, I find it interesting that violent crime isn't nearly as much of a concern as Russian propaganda might suggest--again, if you trust the official sources--despite the fact that there are so many guns floating around that no one knows anything about at any given moment.
It's almost like private citizens can actually be trusted with firearms of all kinds, for the most part, while criminals are going to do whatever they were going to do regardless of what laws are put in place.
Funny, that.
Of course, that's my takeaway, which might not be the most accurate one, and it's based on reports from a nation in the middle of a war, so even if they're trying to be honest, who knows how accurate they could be even if they tried their best.
Still, with all the guns running around, if they're not showing up repeatedly at crime scenes in Europe or North America, and someone has a record of where those guns went, then that's a promising sign.
Unfortunately, Ukraine is planning a lot of gun control down the road as part of talks with the European Union, which poops their shorts at the thought of civilian firearm ownership. I think that would be a mistake in general, but especially so with Russia still sitting there wanting to regain the territory that was once part of the USSR.
